How to Make the Move From Intuition-led to Data-driven

If your bookshelf looks anything like mine, I don’t have to extoll the virtues of data-driven practices to you. Case studies from HBR have shown that A/B testing increased revenue at Bing by 10-25% each year, and  companies that used data to drive decisions were best-positioned to navigate the COVID-19 crisis. But while 83% of CEOs want a data-driven organization, the reality is that many organizations are still largely intuition-run. It takes more than a compelling argument in those contexts to turn the tide.

If you’re spearheading the shift from an intuition-driven to a data-driven practice, it can be an uphill battle and a lonely one at that. We spoke with Hanna Grevelius, CPO at Golf Gamebook & Advisor, and Maggie Paveza, Digital Strategist at The Good, about how they’ve navigated data-imperfect conditions throughout their careers and successfully advocated for data-first principles.

Whether you’re working with limited data or as your company’s first A/B testing specialist, their stories make one thing clear: doing it alone doesn’t have to be so daunting.

Keep reading to hear about:

• How they learned to work with data
• How to leverage data to build prioritization intuition
• When guessing is appropriate
• How to be an advocate for data-first practices

1. It’s OK to learn on the job

For those with only a passable knowledge of statistics, it can seem intimidating to dive headfirst into data-driven decision making. But it doesn’t take a data science degree to be able to act on good data. In fact, few teams employ full-time analysts at early stages of growth. Most teams get by early on with the skills of a few generalists, who, it turns out, often learn on the job.

“Quantitative methods are something that I’ve learned in my career,” says Maggie Paveza, Senior Digital Strategist at The Good. Having previously worked as a UX Researcher at Usertesting.com, Maggie started with a strong foundation in qualitative research before adding quantitative methods to her toolkit, which she says helps her tell a fuller story. “The qualitative research forms the why; the quantitative research forms the what.”

For Hanna Gervelius, CPO at GolfGamebook, her relationship data started from close collaboration with Product Managers.

“My role when I started was in support, answering customer support emails. In trying to understand the scalability of issues, I got to work and talk a lot to product managers who really helped me understand we need to look at the data to know: is it one person who experienced the bug? Is it from a specific version of the app? Is it related to the device or operating system they were on?”

Hanna says learning how to dig for data helped her contextualize customer pain. And through that practice, she built the skills necessary to transition into Product Management. “It was through support that I started to understand that we should look into the data, then eventually I moved over to work on Product Management.”

When she added A/B testing to her toolkit, that took her passion for data to a whole new level.

“It’s so clear when you A/B test that even a small change can have a big impact. When you start seeing the difference, that really sparks an interest.”

2. Use data to define your focus

Once Hanna could confidently dive into the data, she started to use it in her practice, evaluating where traffic hits the app most frequently and focusing on those high-value, high-traffic areas first. This exercise in opportunity sizing taught her that it’s ok to shift focus in light of new data.

Maggie takes a similar approach to prioritization. She uses traffic data to understand what areas of a site or app are highly trafficked, and before proposing a test, she always verifies that an A/B test would see significance within an acceptable amount of time.

“We rely on prioritization methodologies to understand if running a test in an area would have a significant revenue impact and if an A/B test would help us gauge in a number of weeks or longer.”

If you’re just starting out with a new property, Maggie and Hanna both suggest building a foundational understanding of traffic patterns and to regularly refine your strategy. Priorities often shift as a result.

3. In the absence of data, start with a guess

One valuable skill that came later in their careers was understanding the value of a lead. Boosting form fills can feel invigorating, but without an understanding of what portion of that audience might become a deal later, it’s hard to know if your work is making a difference. Assigning a dollar amount to a lead is a powerful tool to evaluate your performance.

But if you’re joining an organization without mature data practices, leads often have no value assigned. And without institutional knowledge, it can be intimidating to make a guesstimate. But to Hanna, it’s worth starting with a guess to set initial priorities.

Hanna advises using a rough calculation to estimate the value of a metric (with things like average deal value and percent of pipeline that converts), which can help you get an early read.

“Over time, you can start adjusting it higher or lower. But trying to put a value on it and making decisions based on that is the best way to still work in a data-driven way even when you don’t have all the answers.”

Hanna warns that an estimate is just that, and that staying above board about where the data comes from is key to retaining trust.

“What’s really important in that estimation reporting is that you’re always super clear that you’re estimating—that it could be a lot higher and a lot lower, because if you start making critical budget decisions on it, you can end up in a dangerous situation.”

4. Be the change you want to see

For those who know the clarity that data can bring to the decision-making process, working within a data-poor organization can be challenging. But Hanna says it’s fairly easy to lead others to data advocacy, even if you’re not in a C-suite. “Most people nowadays want to be data-driven,” Hanna says. In her opinion, it doesn’t take a fancy title to turn others into advocates.

“If you are working in an org where you are the only person who is responsible for testing, the best thing you can do is try to spread that knowledge. Get them involved and feel a sense of ownership. Try to make it so that you’re not the only one who cares about A/B testing and being data-driven.”

In order to build stewardship throughout the organization, Hanna’s advice is to walk through your thinking, specifically by walking colleagues through the potential upside to testing, and the risks of not. “That can help people who are not so interested in testing to be a bit more curious and to want to understand.”

In Hanna’s experience, your passion can be quite contagious. “Data and testing, it opens up a world that is so fun.”

As for how she does it, Hanna shares her excitement by showing rather than telling. “As soon as you have the test going, share a bit of the data early on,” she says. Rather than being cagey about how inaccurate early test data is, she uses it as a teaching moment.

“All of us who work in the testing space know that data from one day or three days is probably going to be completely wrong, and you can say that also. But show it to that person. Show that ‘this is super early, we have no idea if this is going to be correct or not, and stat sig, but after one day this is what it looks like’”

And of course, once you run successful tests down the line, Maggie’s experience tells her that there is nothing more powerful than sharing a win with your team.

Artfully navigating the shift

Advocating for data-driven decision-making in intuition-led companies isn’t always easy, but it’s a challenge worth taking on.

As Maggie and Hanna’s experiences show, starting small, whether by learning on the job, prioritizing based on data, making informed estimates, or sharing early insights, can lead to big shifts in mindset.

By fostering curiosity and collaboration, you can help transform your organization’s approach to decision-making, making data a natural and valued part of the process.